Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Is Facebook's Domination Over?

Facebook's UK unique user numbers have dropped for a second month in a row.

The fall to 8.3M unique users in February from Decembers 8.9M puts an end to the social network's rocket success. It had previously enjoyed 17 consecutive months of gains to the end of 2007.

Facebook had originally attributed a drop in January, to 8.5M, on the Christmas period. But the new provisional figures from Nielsen Online, released exclusively to NMA, reinforces the network's slowdown.

The figures also show that rival Bebo - which was bought by AOL for $850M (£417M) last week - is on the rise, jumping 13% to 4.6M.

Observers have warned that the dramatic rise of Facebook, which once planned to be the 'gateway to the web', is now over.
Alex Burnmaster, European internet analyst at Nielsen Online, said, The period of phenomenal growth for social networks is over. There's only so much they can grow and they've reached critical mass.

The figures reinforce media agencies' views that social audiences have experienced major swelling through hype but will settle into stable niche audiences.

Charlie McGee, managing partner at MEC Interaction, said...

They are very transient. You can never expect numbers to keep going up. It's interesting to see Facebook has lost users, but I'm not sure if it's going to damage ad sales.

Diffiniti's MD Rob Horler agreed...

The social network model is all about monetising core users so I don't think the shedding of numbers is a bad thing...


If in a few months we see the networks losing a quarter of their users, then they'll be in trouble, but for now this loss is sustainable.

MySpace, which claims to be the world's largest social network with 110M users, also continued to drop in the UK, falling to under 5M unique users in February.

But Jay Stevens, VP of sales and operations at MySpace, said...

We do look at traffic patterns but we define ourselves by user engagement levels. We look at logins, how many times that user comes to the site a day to check their email, watch a video or change their profile.

Facebook was unavailable for comment. Last month it released figures that claimed its 'active users' had risen to 8.3M, although this isn't considered a strandard measurement metric.


Facebook's Rise Over as User Numbers Drop Again.

Reference: New Media Age, 20.03.08